AI for Target & Asset Valuation

# AI for Target & Asset Valuation

Every pharmaceutical R&D portfolio decision starts with a fundamental question: is this program worth the investment required to advance it? Answering this requires estimating both the probability of success and the potential commercial reward — and both estimates are notoriously uncertain.

Probability of Technical and Regulatory Success (PTRS)

Historical industry data provides baseline success probabilities by phase: - Preclinical to Phase 1: ~40-50% - Phase 1 to Phase 2: ~50-60% - Phase 2 to Phase 3: ~25-35% (the highest attrition point) - Phase 3 to Approval: ~50-70% - Overall from preclinical to approval: ~5-10%

But these are averages. The actual probability for any given program depends on: - Therapeutic area (oncology vs. cardiovascular vs. rare disease) - Mechanism of action (validated vs. novel) - Biomarker availability and patient selection strategy - Regulatory pathway (accelerated approval vs. standard) - Endpoint selection (surrogate vs. clinical outcomes) - Competitive landscape (first-in-class vs. best-in-class vs. me-too)