Lesson 2 of 3•AI for Financial Modeling & Forecasting0 of 3 complete (0%)
15 min read
Scenario Analysis with AI
What you'll learn
- 1Design bear, base, and bull scenarios with distinct assumption sets
- 2Use AI to stress-test models under adverse conditions
- 3Present scenario analysis in a decision-ready format
From Single Point to Scenario Thinking
Most financial models produce a single number: "We'll hit $10M ARR by Year 3." But experienced operators and investors think in ranges. Scenario analysis gives you that range — and more importantly, it reveals which decisions are good regardless of which scenario unfolds.
The Three-Scenario Framework
Bear Case — "What if things go wrong?" Not a disaster scenario, but a realistic downside: - Customer acquisition slows 30% - Churn increases by 2 percentage points - Pricing power decreases (smaller deal sizes) - Sales cycle lengthens by 40%
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What you'll learn:
- Design bear, base, and bull scenarios with distinct assumption sets
- Use AI to stress-test models under adverse conditions
- Present scenario analysis in a decision-ready format